Local Data Center Moratoriums Have Only Delayed Three U.S. Projects

Impact of Local Moratoriums

More than 300 local data center construction moratoriums haven’t had a massive impact on planned buildouts, with only three projects at about 2.3 out of 21 gigawatts (GW) of data centers in moratorium areas likely to be delayed, with a total of 38 GW projected to come online next year, SemiAnalysis shared on X. Per-project audits of the moratoriums indicate that they tend to miss the site, the permit, or the timeline.

Moratoriums aren't killing the US datacenter buildout. Our analyst @mayabarkin finds only ~2.3 GW of ~21 GW in moratorium areas (excluding the TCEQ pause in Texas) is likely to be delayed, as cited in The Economist.

Forecast and Capacity

The crux of the report is that, while everyone thinks the moratoriums are killing the U.S. buildout, its forecast has barely moved over the last 12 months. This forecast includes 38 GW of U.S. data center IT capacity in 2027, which is more than double that of 2026. Of that, 22 GW is under vertical construction, and the other 16 GW is mostly financed, with site work being done. The enacted local moratoriums cover about 20 GW with only about 1.5 GW of it delayed; New York’s pause adds 0.8 GW more. It is noted that moratoriums could delay the buildout, but they just aren’t yet at scale.

Tracking Restrictions

The firm defines a moratorium as a temporary legal pause, and almost always a freeze on accepting new applications. More than 400 local instruments are tracked across 17 states, the enacted ones including a few permanent zoning bans, as of September. Four states acted in under two months this summer: New York, Texas, Pennsylvania, and Oregon. To test each active restriction against the records of thousands of projects, the firm’s analysts worked alongside an army of state-of-the-art research agents.

Why Moratoriums Fail

Several reasons are given for moratorium ineffectiveness, starting with the fact that they don’t revoke existing approvals. Short ones may expire before later projects need approval, and litigation or equipment lead times may already set the schedule. A moratorium moves the delivery date only if every condition holds, including that it reaches the parcel, is in force, overlaps the timeline, and covers the use in a way the project can’t work around. Capacity already under construction or fully permitted is also out of reach.

For example, Michigan has 45 enacted moratoriums but effectively zero pipeline exposure, and a Google campus there sits on industrial land already zoned for data processing. The firm says SpaceX’s planned data center in Brownsville, Texas, is on land the city removed from its limits and thus out of reach of the city’s moratorium. For a moratorium that did work, a township adopted a pause before NorthPoint, in Pennsylvania, filed for its special exception, with local approval pushed to next year. The company is still pursuing it.

The Texas Factor

The 2.3 GW figure is also incomplete, as it leaves out the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality pause. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott told the TCEQ to issue no permits for data center projects. Law firm Bracewell says this applies whether a project is in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas’s queue or not, and expects the pause to last until ERCOT finishes its review in mid-December. Pauses like the TCEQ’s, and how they play out, could impact buildout forecasts.

Reports from trips covering Michigan and Ohio state that data center moratoriums are much more bark than bite for the time being. The bigger risk is seen in deterring newer projects, though this affects where data centers end up more than whether they get built. Politics also plays a role, as public opinion polls indicate more Americans have a negative rather than positive impression of data centers.

The analysis concludes that moratoriums would need to be materially more widespread and restrictive to delay the buildout. Analysts noted that stricter state-level moratoriums blocking off-grid projects would be of greater concern. Meanwhile, officials in states like New York and Texas have found ways to bypass legislatures for pauses they control and can revoke.