Unprecedented Close Approach
A Russian military satellite, Cosmos 2612, has closed to roughly 3 miles, from a previous distance of more than 200 miles, of a U.S.-owned radar satellite that operates in a fleet supporting Ukraine, Axios reports. This unapproved rendezvous in low Earth orbit, which astronomer Jonathan McDowell says may be the first of its kind, raises alarm in the West. The position change, likely not an accident given the scarcity of fuel, is probably a provocation and an attempt to spy on the satellite.
Astronomer Jonathan McDowell noted that new orbital data indicated Cosmos 2612 executed a maneuver on October 16, now station-keeping within 5 km or less of ICEYE X36. He believes this marks the first unapproved rendezvous of two active satellites in low Earth orbit where the owner of one satellite did not grant approval.
LeoLabs stated that the movement “appears to be a deliberate approach” toward ICEYE-X36, with uncertain intent and behavior that “warrants continued monitoring.” Roughly 3 miles is considered too close in satellite terms; while there is no strict legal limit, countries generally maintain at least 6 miles (9.7 km) apart, according to University of Mississippi space law professor Aaron Brynildson. The approach was made without the owner’s consent, and Russia has not disclosed what the military satellite carries.
The Target: ICEYE-X36 Radar Satellite
Some clues about the intent may come from the target’s operational purpose. ICEYE-X36 is a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite capable of imaging through cloud cover and at night. It was launched in March 2024 on a SpaceX Falcon 9 and is registered to ICEYE US, the U.S. arm of the Finland-founded company. The satellite, operating in a roughly 545 km (339 mi) sun-synchronous orbit, is part of a fleet that has supplied Ukraine with information since 2022. This includes a deal earlier this year with a customer in Ukraine’s defense ministry, though a Ukrainian official told Axios it’s unclear whether ICEYE-X36 itself directly supports the country; ICEYE and the Defense Department declined to comment.
In May, the majority of the six military satellites Russia launched in April via a Soyuz-2.1b, Cosmos 2609–2614, shifted their orbits about 0.8 degrees to match X36’s orbital plane. Cosmos 2609 passed within 2.5 km (1.6 mi) on May 26. Cosmos 2612, however, had drifted off X36’s plane by about 0.24 degrees by Sept. 30, up to about 28 km side to side, according to Greg Gillinger, a space analyst with Integrity ISR.
Subsequently, Cosmos 2612 made separate burns from Sept. 30 through Oct. 16 to match altitude, eccentricity, and orbital period, Dutch satellite tracker Marco Langbroek wrote. By Saturday night, he estimated from public orbital data, it was within “a few hundred meters or possibly (much) closer.”
Deliberate Maneuvers and Potential Threats
These movements appear deliberate and consume a significant amount of fuel, which the Center for Strategic and International Studies calls “a limited resource on a satellite.” While close-proximity work can be benign, the CSIS advises policymakers to assume the Russian satellite “could take an action that threatens the commercial satellite.” They suggest the U.S. and Europe should decide how to respond to any hostile act in space and issue a statement on the decision. In July 2020, Russia’s Cosmos 2543 released an object at up to 186 m/s (416 mph) relative to itself, an action condemned by the U.S. and U.K.
Earlier this year, McDowell had indicated that orbital data showed no sign of the stable, close distance required for tracking ICEYE-X36, making intent less clear. Now, he describes it as an unapproved meeting. Gillinger asserts that the setup “removes any remaining doubt for me that Cosmos 2612 is interested in ICEYE X36.” Langbroek, initially skeptical, now calls it “completely non-consensual,” though he cautions it would be difficult to attribute any X36 failures directly to 2612’s actions.
Western Concerns and Interpretations
In a Reuters report less than two weeks ago, ICEYE CEO Rafal Modrzewski stated the company moved its satellite after May, only to draw more Russian maneuvers, which Germany’s Space Command head, Maj. Gen. Michael Traut, described as “chasing.” Belinda Marchand, chief scientist at U.S. space intelligence firm Slingshot Aerospace, added that the moves may have been intended for surveillance, to prepare for future interference, or to signal capability. Western officials reportedly interpret such trailing as a method to gather intelligence and test the West’s tolerance.
No official statement from Russia is on record regarding these maneuvers. Gillinger also advised observers to “watch Cosmos 2611 and 2613, whose planes are converging on ICEYE X37’s,” with crossings expected around November 6 and November 15.
